Several notes in this collection have described Georgia as a swing state.
Cory Ruth of Atlanta, a political strategist and tech consultant, says that’s wrong. He says the Republican Party has had a structural advantage in every election since 2010. Republicans carried every constitutional office that year.
I might owe readers a correction.
Ruth also said that primary turnout is the strongest indicator of general election outcomes in Georgia. Whatever party shows up with the most voters in the primaries in May is the favorite to win the general election in November.
As Ruth put it, “primary turnout is the best polling.”
Here were the figures reported for the May primaries:
• Democratic: 1.08 million, 53.7 percent.
• Republican: 933,000, 46.3 percent.
Those figures ignore ballots cast for nonpartisan races, mostly judicial.
To me, the most important number is voter turnout.
Georgia has more than 7.5 million registered voters. It says a lot when 27 percent is a record — a cause for rejoicing among those concerned about civic engagement.
The Independent Voter Project does not track independent voters in the same way as the sources used above, so the numbers aren’t comparable. But it’s the only source I’ve found that tracks turnout rates across parties.
Here’s the Independent Voter Project’s report on the total number of registered voters with turnout rates for the primaries:
• Democratic — 3.32 million, 43.8 percent turnout.
• Republican — 2.08 million, 27.5 percent turnout.
• Independent — 2.17 million, 28.7 percent turnout.
• Sources: Cory Ruth, “Georgia is not a swing state, but it could veer blue in 2026”’ Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Sept. 4, 2026.
The report by the Independent Voter Project is here:
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